Product Mix and Output Algorithm

Submission to DEFRA for Pre-Approval

Date of Submission: 11^th March 2002

Company Name: Busy Foods Limited

123 Station Road, Any Town, AB23 2XY

Contact Name: John Smith

Telephone:

Email:

Facility Number: FDF/1234/5678

Approach Used: FDF Common Approach 1

Brief Summary of Product Mix and Output Changes:

Busy Foods manufactures flour from wheat.

All our flour is made to a very similar specification, hence we treat all production as a single variable.

In this submission we have used FDF Common Approach 1 to adjust our target for a drop in production from the Base Year to the expected value for the 1^st milestone period.

1. Base Year Data Summary

2. Detailed Description of Changes

In our Base Year production was 53,000 tonnes (i.e. 1019.2 tonnes per week).

During CCL Year 2 (October 2000 to September 2001), production fell to 44,000 tonnes and we expect a further drop during the milestone year.

Our current best estimate of production for the milestone year is 41,000 tonnes (i.e. 788.5 tonnes per week).

3. Regression Analysis of Main Meter Data

From week 10 to week 25 2002 we have collected weekly values from both incoming main meters and for production. Detailed data is shown in the Appendix.

Note, there was no consistent weekly data available before that date, hence the graphs shown in the Appendix represent recent data gathered during the milestone year.

The graphs in the Appendix show the following linear regression relationships:

Weekly Electricity = 59.6 * weekly production + 17607 (equation 1)

Weekly Gas = 172.4 * weekly production + 16868 (equation 2)

As shown in the Appendix, good R² values of around 0.96 were obtained.

From these equations we can derive a single equation for primary energy, based on:

Primary Energy = 2.6 * electricity use + 1 * gas use

.......................= 2.6 * (59.6 * production + 17607) + 172.4 * production + 16868

......................= 327.4 * production + 62646 (equation 3)

The equation for primary SEC is derived as follows:

Primary SEC = Primary Energy / production

...................= 327.4 + 62646 / production (equation 4)

In all the above equations, production figures are weekly.

Using nomenclature shown in graph above we can establish:

SEC₁ and SEC₂ from the Primary SEC equation shown above (equation 4).

SEC₃ from Base Year data.

Then, SEC₄ is obtained by assuming that energy savings made since the base year are equally shared between the slope and intercept of Equation 3. This gives the following relationship:

SEC₄ = SEC₃ * (SEC₂ / SEC₁) (equation 5)

4. Example of Target Adjustment

Average weekly output in Base Year = 1019.2

If average weekly output in target year = 788.5

Then values of SECs have been calculated as follows:

Using SEC₄ values from above,

Modified primary SEC in Base Year = 420.8 kWh/tonne

Modified target = (original target SEC / actual BY SEC) * modified BY SEC

......................= (390.2 / 402.3) * 420.8

......................= 408.1 kWh / tonne

4. Action Plan

Between now and our final PMOA submission (in December 2002) we shall continue to gather weekly energy and production data.

We shall check the basic regression analysis (equations 1 and 2) against the larger dataset that will be available in December.

We shall evaluate the actual production level for the 1^st milestone year and use this figure to adjust our target.

5. Energy Efficiency Programme

Busy Foods have taken active steps to improve energy efficiency since we signed our CCA Underlying Agreement. Some of the key activities we have undertaken include:

• Identification of Board Director responsible for energy efficiency.

• Creation of a part time energy manager role.

• Agreement of a plan to improve efficiency.

• Modification to the boiler house condensate return system.

• Improvement of the control of extract fans.

• Installation of variable speed drive pumps.

We have plans to carry out a number of important efficiency projects over the next 2 years including:

• Improved sub-metering and use of an M&T system.

• Major project to recover heat from extract system.

• Further investment in variable speed drives.

Appendix – Detailed Energy and Production Data

The table below gives weekly figures from electricity and gas meters and for total factory production.

The following graph presents a single regression analysis of the electricity data:

The following graph presents a single regression analysis of the gas data: