Product Mix and Output Algorithm

Submission to DEFRA for Pre-Approval

Date of Submission: 11th March 2002

Company Name: Great Foods Limited

123 Station Road, Any Town, AB23 2XY

Contact Name: John Smith

Telephone:

Email:

Facility Number: FDF/1234/5678

Approach Used: FDF Common Approach 2

Brief Summary of Product Mix and Output Changes:

Great Foods manufactures chilled and frozen lasagne.

During the last few years, there has been a change in the market such that we now manufacture more frozen lasagne than we did during our base year. Frozen lasagne obviously consumes more energy per tonne of product than chilled lasagne.

The frozen and chilled products are made on different production lines, however, there are no sub-meters present on site.

In this submission we have used FDF Common Approach 2 to adjust our target for an increase in production of frozen lasagne and decrease in chilled lasagne from the Base Year to the expected value for the 1st milestone period.

1. Base Year Data Summary

2. Detailed Description of Changes

In our Base Year, production of frozen lasagne was 2,200 tonnes (i.e. 42.3 tonnes per week) and chilled lasagne was 9,300 tonnes (i.e. 178.8 tonnes per week).

During CCL Year 2 (October 2000 to September 2001), production of frozen lasagne increased to 5,000 tonnes and we expect a further increase during the milestone year with a decrease in chilled production.

Our current best estimate of production for the milestone year is 6,000 tonnes (i.e. 115.3 tonnes per week) of chilled lasagne and 3,300 tonnes of frozen lasagne (i.e. 63.5 tonnes per week).

3. Regression Analysis of Main Meter Data

We have collected weekly values from the incoming main meters for gas and electricity since the start of CCL Year 2. The same data has been gathered for production broken down by frozen and chilled products. Detailed data is shown in the Appendix.

Note, there was no consistent weekly data available before the start of CCL Year 2.

In order to analyse the data, we are using weekly data gathered for CCL Year 3 only (i.e. September 2001 onwards).

The tables in the Appendix have resulted in the following multiple regression relationships:

Weekly Electricity =
53,630 + (87.1 x weekly chilled lasagne) + (220.9 x weekly frozen lasagne) (equation 1)

Weekly Gas =
7,671 + (48.1 x weekly chilled lasagne) + (8.6 x weekly frozen lasagne) (equation 2)

As shown in the Appendix, good R2 values of around 0.90 and 0.82 were obtained.

From these equations we can derive a single equation for primary energy, based on:

Primary Energy = 2.6 * electricity use + 1 * gas use

= 147,185 + (274.6 x weekly chilled lasagne) + (582.9 x weekly frozen lasagne) (equation 3)

The equation for primary SEC is derived as follows:

Primary SEC = Primary Energy / production

= 147,185 + (274.6 x weekly chilled lasagne) + (582.9 x weekly frozen lasagne)
(weekly chilled lasagne + weekly frozen lasagne) (equation 4)

Using the relationship:

SEC1 is calculated using the Primary SEC equation shown above and the base year production values (equation 4). SEC2 is calculated using the Primary SEC equation shown above and the milestone year production values (equation 4) SEC3 is the base year SEC. Then, SEC4 is obtained by assuming that energy savings made since the base year are equally shared between the slope and intercept of Equation 3. This gives the following relationship: SEC4 = SEC3 * (SEC2 / SEC1)

4. Example of Target Adjustment

Actual Average weekly output in Base Year: frozen = 42.3 tonnes per week
................................................................chilled = 178.8

Estimated Average weekly output in Milestone Year: frozen = 63.5
............................................................................chilled = 115.3

Then values of SECs have been calculated as follows:

	All SECs in kWh/tonne	Primary SECs
SEC1	Target year, base year production levels	999.1
SEC2	Target year, milestone year production levels	1,207.3
SEC3	Base year, base year production levels	1,151.9
SEC4	Base year, milestone year production levels	1,391.9

Using SEC4 values from above,

Modified primary SEC in Base Year = 1,391.9 kWh/tonne

Modified target = 2 % reduction x modified base year SEC

= 0.98 x 1,391.9

= 1,364.1 kWh / tonne

4. Action Plan

Between now and our final PMOA submission (in December 2002) we shall continue to gather weekly energy and production data.

We shall check the basic regression analysis (equations 1 and 2) against the larger dataset that will be available in December.

We shall evaluate the actual production level for the 1st milestone year and use this figure to adjust our target.

5. Energy Efficiency Programme

Great Foods have taken active steps to improve energy efficiency since we signed our CCA Underlying Agreement. Some of the key activities we have undertaken include:

• Developed a company energy policy.
• Allocated clear responsibility for CCL data collection.
• Developed an energy action plan.
• Attended CCL refrigeration course and improved maintenance procedures on the refrigeration plant.
• Started a staff energy awareness campaign.

We have plans to carry out a number of important efficiency projects over the next 2 years including:

• Improved sub-metering and use of an M&T system.
• Investment in variable speed drives.

Appendix - Detailed Energy and Production Data

The table below gives weekly figures from electricity and gas meters and for total factory production.

Electricity:

Gas: